1	"Morpeth Flood Action Group" Morpeth Flood Action Group Graham Butler: Public Weather Service Advisor 18^th May 2009
2	Overview National Severe Weather Warning Service Flood Forecasting Centre Rainfall radar Events of 6^th September 2008 PWS Advisor
3	The Public Weather Service – Warning and Informing
4	National Severe Weather Warning Service THREE TIERS ADVISORY Issued daily at around11am EARLY WARNING Issued several days in advance of the severe weather (typically 3-5 days) FLASH Issued when the severe weather is imminent (up to 6 hours in advance) All these are available on the Met Office web-site.
5	Severe weather - impacts
6	(Web-based) Advisory Posted/updated daily on the Met Office weather warnings page – commenced March 2008 Designed to flag-up potential severe or ‘extreme’ weather events where the confidence level < 60% but >= 20%, i.e. before an Early Warning is declared Enables differentiation between more ‘regular’ severe weather and the rarer ‘extreme’ weather events Used in association with a ‘Traffic light’ confidence-level scheme Superseded by Early Warning when confidence exceeds 60%
7
8	Benefits of Advisories Earlier indication (up to 5 days ahead) of potential severe/extreme weather events; Emergency planners are able to forward plan and increase (or decrease) mitigation actions through time as event nears.
9	Interpreting the colours ‘Be Aware’ means Remain alert and keep up to date with latest forecast ‘Be prepared’ means Remain vigilant, keep up to date with latest forecast and take precautions where possible ‘Take action’ means Remain extra vigilant, keep up to date with latest forecast. Follow orders and any advice given by authorities and be prepared for extraordinary measures
10	Severe/Extreme Severe weather – these events are not unusual and are experienced on a number of occasions throughout the year, but more commonly winter months. They will impact on individual areas, but often not significantly. Extreme weather – these events are unusual and only happen around 3 or 4 times per year. They have a significant impact on infrastructure and may lead to casualties. Events this year include the snow of early February.
11	Early Warnings Supersedes the advisory Issued in advance of the expected severe weather (typically 3-5 days) Assessment of the risk of disruption when it is above 60% Each region is assigned percentage risk of disruption (impact based) Disruption map published on website Allows time for preparations to be made Once issued, updated daily until the event
12
13
14
15	Flash Warnings Issued when the severe weather is imminent (target of 2 hours, up to 6 hours in advance) Issued if certain critical meteorological thresholds are likely to be met with an 80% probability Issued on county/unitary authority basis React to rather than prepare for
16
17
18	Flood Forecasting Centre
19
20	Flood Forecasting Centre What is the Flood Forecasting Centre? A joint EA and Met Office venture Will combine meteorology and hydrology expertise in one team Will operate 24/7 from 1^st April 26 members of staff Located in Central London
21	What will the FFC offer? Flood Guidance Statements Extreme Rainfall Alerts (ERA) Daily weather forecasts and heavy rainfall warnings ( when necessary ) to the E.A Will aim to forecast for river and coastal flooding as well as extreme rainfall which may lead to surface water flooding
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33	Public Weather Service Advisor’s Role In Response to CCA 2004 the Met Office Established 6 Regional Advisory posts across the UK, recently increased to 10. Centrally funded by the Public Weather Service. Advisors’ services are “free at point of use”. Aligned and attached to EMARC.
34	Input at National and Local Level
35	PWS Advisors
36
37